The Unthinkable Israel and Iran with nukes

Thinking the Unthinkable, Chinese arming Iran with nuclear weapons

Under a Middle East "mutually assured destruction”(MAD) can Israeli and Iran learn to live together?

By Isiah Scott

With a 100,000 American boots on the ground in Iraq and China importing over 3 million barrels per, Israeli role must change to survive.

According to the New York Times A Lobby, Not a Conspiracy “For the terms of strategic debate are shifting East Asia grows daily in importance. Meanwhile our clumsy failure to re-cast the Middle East—and its enduring implications for our standing there—has come into sharp focus.” The failure of the west and Israel in the post WWII period to bring industrialization the Middle East society has created the economies of Hamas rise to state power. This political insight, suggest the New York Times is the basis for the deepening Chinese penetration of US hegemony of the Middle East oil.

In a rare case of real political journalism, the New York Times is a series of articles-- China’s Big Appetite for Oil Is High on Agenda for US, Chinese Leader Focuses on Business as 4-Day US Visit Begin in Washington State, A Lobby, Not a Conspiracy and Iraq II or a Nuclear Iran prepares its readers for the unthinkable. That is, a nuclear armed Iran as a stabilizing force for Middle East peace, using a Chinese application of the principle of a small nuclear deterrent. The New York Times explains the political economy behind the Chinese nuclear arming of Iran and why informed Americans should not be afraid of it.

The New York Time builds the core augment of why Iran is going nuclear around Iran need to protect itself and China’s project need of oil. According to articles from Foreign Affairs, Center for Strategic and International Studies and Oval Office studies projection Chinese need to import 10 million barrels of oil a day (mbpd) by 2025 and a current need of 3.5 mbpd. Using the New York Times logic, China is forced to exchange nuclear arms with Iran for long-term oil supplies in order to meet its deepening oil needs.

Short of the United States government ensuring China’s deepening energy needs, China is forced out of necessity to do what it has to hustle oil imports from rogue states like Iran and Sudan who are demanding nuclear protection and nuclear weapons. Israel with not oil to export to Asia, has no place in the New World order of energy giants fighting for Middle East oil. Israel will have to live with a nuclear Iran, and the possibility of a nuclear-armed Sudan. Under a Middle East "mutually assured destruction”(MAD) Israeli and Iran will learn to live together. Nothing is said about Israeli doctrine of first strike.

It took courage on the part of the New York Times to fully reveal all the dimensions of this emerging critical debate in a single issue of the paper. China massive 205 billion of dollars US trade surplus and national full employment policy is driven China foreign exports. The projected growth in imported oil from 3.5 mbpd by 2025 to 10 mbpd speaks clearly to a changing world order.

Thomas Friedman’s column about the pointless of trying to use military force against Iran, highlight the need to think of Iran’s nuclear program in terms of the MAD frame work and not just either/or terms. Also Friedman points to a major weakness in the US Chinese nuclear containment and nuclear proliferation.

With other oil rich countries like Nigeria, Sudan and Venezuela waiting in the wing for nuclear weapons from China, the New York Times series of article is very timely and should be read and studied by new layers in American political culture.