Tuesday, April 18, 2006

Bush looks the other way, gives Chad to Chinese Oil companies

China oil gaint consolidates in Chad before rainy season
By I.R. Scott

The hidden force in Sudan political economy is the US/Chinese oil Lobby

While the international media has been playing up the ruse of mistrust and mutuality: when in reality US-China oil links are deepening in East Africa. Chinese backed Sudanese and Chadian insurgents have encircled the capital of Chad and are threatening to stop or influence the electoral defeat of President Idriss Deby in the upcoming for May elections.

According to the BBC one hundred of the insurgents captured by the central government of Chad were reportedly mostly Sudanese from the Darfur region of Sudan. The Chad’s main civilian opposition parties are boycotting the May elections.

The Chadian government is making empty threats to military attack the central government for its active and material support of the Chadian insurgents surrounding the N’Djamena, the capital. In any war between Chad and Sudan, the oil rich region of Chad would be lost to Sudan this would allow the partition of the country. The Chadian insurgents have been using Darfur region of Sudan as a military base of operation under the protection of Sudanese and Chinese forces.

Monday, April 17, 2006, Chad withdrew a threat to expel refugees from Sudan’s Darfur region and extended a deadline on a threat halt oil production.

France has say that while it is bolstering its 1,500 troops already in Chad; it well remains politically “neutral” and “would not intervene in internal politics”. This action by the French opens the door to partition of southren Chad.

President Idriss Deby of Chad is also threatening to cut the ExxonMobil-led oil pipe, to force the World Bank to release the nation’s oil profits to fight the Sudanese/Chinese back insurgents.

The active role being play by the World Bank in the apparent regime change in Chad is raising major concern around the world. According to the Financial Time, the 1,000-km pipeline was a model for future (development) schemes in regions like South Sudan.

Americans are deeply concerned about the political situation in East Africa, particularly the US oil lobby takeover of the post Colin Powell US Sudanese policy of “look the other way” policy toward Sudanese central government. The continued collapse of American support for the Iraq war is limiting the option of the Bush Administration ability to brokering the next phase of end of the Sudan civil war.

The Oval Office appears to be using the American public fears of civil wars in East Africa to justified the abandonment any official containment of Chinese expansion in Sudan and try to take part of the Sudan oil riches for the American oil multinationals.

At the core of the application of this new Oval Office policy is the secret support of an illegal American oil operation (Cliveden Sudan) using Sudan troops and Chinese cooperation for the past two years in Darfur. This back door US oil lobby move into Sudan has reduced the US civil right policy toward Black Sudanese to nothing more than a cheap political ruse.

One measure of American concern about the Bush consolidation of an oil centric Sudanese policy is the fact that almost 100 billion dollars of private American funds are invested in foreign companies doing business in Sudan.

The private American investment Sudan is larger than any African state outside of South Africa.

Hidden in the Chadian crisis, is the fact that France, ExxonMobil, Citibank, the Sudanese military, China and US are openly working to take control of both Chad and South Sudan oil.

The Chinese are extending their military condon sanitaria around their oil operations in southern Sudan and are refusing to allow the Black Sudanese to use their oil maintenance roads (the only paved surfaces in the south) to either transport people or food and supplies to the refugee camps. The Chinese oil companies like China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) are pushing the local south Sundaes people, with out any compensation further away from both their oil production sits and the oil pipeline in southern Sudan. The projection of Chinese backed rebels forces to N’Djamena allows the Chinese forces grounds in Sudan to consolidated greater control over southern Chad and Sudan before the annual rainy season starts and the military situation becomes freezes until fall. CNPC is developing oil production in Chad’s Doba Basin.

Chad has diplomatic ties Taiwan. According to the Taipei Times January 19, 2006, Chinese Petroleum of Taiwan signed a contract with the government of Chad to develop a total of 180,000 of barrels of crude. The Taiwan oil would have to be transported via the ExxonMobil pipeline out of Chad. 1,500 France forces and US Space Command protect the pipeline. US naval forces are positioned near Cameroon in a joint US/French taskforce. Other US/French forces are in the Horn of Africa.

The Chinese military command in Sudan needs to upgrade its logistically links between CNPC operations in Chad with other oil production in southern Sudan. Backing the Chad insurgency movement allow Chinese and Sudanese forces to create the necessary logistical supply lines and related infrastructure they need on the ground in eastern Chad to protect Chinese oil interests in the event of a civil war in Chad.

Carefully kept of the westren new is the fact that US military Special Forces are also on the ground in Chad and Sudan and in ships in the Red Sea.

American oil companies are trying to quietly come through the backdoor in Sudan

A British Cannel 4 News investigation has discovered a signed 25-year contact with an American consortium led by the Cliveden Group to drill for oil in southern Sudan and Darfur. In late 2003, Cliveden Sudan acquired the biggest stake in the Block C consortium drilling for oil Block C runs from Darfur to deep into southern Sudan.

Two Chinese corporations were reportedly given an option of 50 percent of the deal. This is the tip of the iceberg of a new White House oil centric shift in US Sudanese policy, led by Condoleezza Rice and Paul Wolfowitz.

Central to any understanding of the current Sudan situation is China’s energy policy and strategic investments in Sudan. But turning a blind eye to the Chinese factor and US oil companies put into in Sudan, the real issues of the political transition in southern Sudan are missed.

China is the chief protector of the central government in Sudan. China supply’s the government with the military and political means to carry out genocide against the people of Sudan. China is backing the Chadian insurgency in order to de facto partition southern Chad and integrate its oil production with the Chinese operation in southern Sudan.

This political exchange between China and Sudan is based on the fact that China imports 10 percent of its oil exported from Sudan. Chinese oil fields in southern Sudan generate the third largest amount of oil exported from Africa.

India and other Asia countries also have major operation in Sudan. The French gaint Total hold claims to the second area, Black B in southern Sudan and is fighting the SPLA in court to take control.

US oil companies are trying to initially piggyback the Chinese relationship in Sudan. The American oil operations in Sudan will use Chinese oil pipelines to export their oil. In the long-term the Cameroon-Chad pipeline was constructed with Darfur and southern Sudan in mind. The Chinese have quietly started buying control of the pipeline via Cliveden.

While it appears that China is welling to political acquiesce to world pressure to some limited free southern Sudan. It remain very unclear, after the fall of the central government of Idriss Deby in Chad, what the nature and form southern Sudan freedom will take in terms of China and other Asia oil companies. The Chad pipeline model was the proto type of new oil deals with oil rich states like South Sudan. With Chinese troops on the grounds, this may change.

Option B, Oval Office gets in bed with Chinese
Having soundly lost the public trust and with little American public support for a US hot war against the Sudan and China to free South Sudan and maybe Darfur, the Oval Office has quietly moved to option B, which called for forcing the SPLA and other Black groups in Sudan to honor the framework of the US brokered power sharing agreement with the central government of Sudan. This agreement allows CNPC and ExxonMobil the opportunity to develop oil production in both Chad and South Sudan.

Central to the Oval Office option B is a World Bank supervised death march of four million Black to southern Sudan. President Bush fantasy is that the Chinese government fearing US and European political pressure about it record trade imbalance will allow US and European oil companies to participate in the rape of Sudan’s oil. This political quid pro quto (thing for thing) is the new Bush Sudanese policy. The Cliveden Group operation is the latest in a series of shell corporations hoping to bring the major western Oil companies back into Sudan.

To show the Chinese that President Bush and the US lobby are real players to be trusted, and can control the post-Garage SPLA leadership, the Oval Office ordered a southern death march.

This death march policy has historical context:

In the 1980’s president Bush turned a blind eye to the oil companies rape of southern Nigeria and the international reports of genocide of the Oyo people. In the 1990’s Bill Clinton turned away from the French oil giant Total SA and Exxon Mobile slaughtered of 800,00 people in Rwanda, Cameroon and Chad. The Colombia Plan was designed to murder local resistance to US oil interests, not stop the flow of drugs into the North Americans ghettos.

The now operational Exxon Mobile Cameroon/Chad pipeline is located near the Cliveden Group oil fields and right next to the French oil multinational Total SA Block B claim.

In 2003, President Bush fired Africa last best hope Colin Powell and started the policy transition to acquiesce to the US oil lobby delusion of partnership with the China National Petroleum Crop in Sudan. Paul Wolfowitz, the new president of the World Bank and his Department of Defense planners and Special Forces has replaced the US State Department function on the ground in Sudan.

The single most disgraceful action of the Oval Office, before New Orleans, has been the aggressive support and participation in the World Bank supervised forced death march of four million Sudanese citizens to war-torn southern Sudan. The White House aggressive facilitation of Black Sudanese genocide is designed to show the Chinese government, their ability to broker a deal to control the Black Sudanese problem.

This is the secrete logic behind President Bush’s fusion of the CIA and Sudan intelligence operations and the open refusal to arm the Sudan People Liberation Army to defense the Black Sudanese or the people of Darfur. The Oval Office is trying to make southern Sudan political safe for expanding Chinese oil production, in exchange for China allowing US oil production. The US oil lobby is trying to build a strong need dependency element in the emerging US/Chinese partnership in oil production in Sudan.

US policy toward Sudan must become an equal balance between agribusiness and oil exports. Only massive development of the southern agriculture economy will change the political situation in Sudan and Central Africa.

The failure of China to force the industrialization of southern Sudanese agriculture is the biggest weakness in the Chinese Sudanese policy toward the Black southern population. The missing step in the limited Chinese industrialization of northern Sudan is the modernization of southern Sudanese agriculture. Sudan, with the richness farmland in Africa, cannot feed itself, either in the north or the south. China lacks the political and technological means to quietly build the physical infrastructure to develop Sudan farming. Japan, Western Europe and the US are best suited to develop the farming sector of the south as the first step toward an industrial society.

Congress’s decision to bar US private investments in Sudan must be amended to allow direct private US investments in southern Sudan and Darfur only to develop agriculture and oil, in that order. The US Congress should impose a special import tax on Chinese imports and use the revenues to create a southern Sudanese development fund, administered by independence US/South Sudan Commission. Other area of Sudan affected by genocide would be added to the fund. The primary function of the fund would be to build infrastructure, i.e. roads, bridges, hospitals, schools, transportation and housing.

In exchange for US support for Chinese oil interest in southern Sudan, Congress should force the issue of the central government of Sudan starting to give the SPLA its oil revenues project to be over 50 billion dollars the 8 years and ensure the peace. Rather than just a US imposed no-fly zone, the SPLA should be allowed to defend their own country with cruise missiles centric defense system.

Wall Street to the rescue
Finding the right policy tools for America at this point means bring Wall Street to the table to contain China and US Oil companies in order to ensure industrialization of the argibusessness sector of southern Sudan. As long as the Oval Office continues to put the oil lobby concerns before the strategic interest of the American people Darfur will suffer.

The hardest thing for Americans to find is the political will to lean the hard lessons of Iraq and apply then to Sudan. The most important lesson for southern Sudan is a comprehensive version, plan and road map of the creation of a modern industrialized society. China has a master plan for Sudan, America does not.

President Bush is paralyzed in his East African policy because the Chinese government refuses to allow the US oil lobby and NATO a free hand to turn Sudan into an African Iraq. China imports 10 percent of it oil from Sudan. China built the only operational oil pipe and refineries in Sudan. Most of China’s oil fields and operations in Sudanese are located in the southern areas and Darfur.

This strategic investment Chinese investment in Sudan is protected by Chinese nuclear forces on station in the Red Sea.

Any change in the political situation in Sudan must be negotiated within the framework of the Chinese African energy policy. Central to the Chinese African energy policy is expanding African oil exports to meet growing energy needs in Asia. Sudan is one of China’s major African partners. Sudan is China’s largest overseas oil project. China maintains military forces both in Sudan and within the region to protect its oil infrastructure and other Sudanese investments.

Chinese generals have publicly stated any military threat to Chinese strategic interest around the world could trigger a nuclear response. China maintains a small nuclear force in the Red Sea. Any real United Nation force deployed to separate southern Sudan from the central government would have to deal with the immediate potential of a Chinese nuclear threat.

China is politically sensitive to its role in the genocide of Black, but the economic necessity of the oil imports to the growth of the Chinese industrial economy over rides the genocide. The larger political economy of the US/China trade and debt relationship negates any major US initiative against Chinese interest in either Sudan or East Africa.

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