China and Sudan to partition Chad's oil region
De facto military partition of oil rich eastern Chad
by Isiah Scott
According to the Taipei Times January 19, 2006, Chinese Petroleum of Taiwan signed a contract with the government of Chad to develop a total of 180,000 of barrels of crude. A key term in the deal is a potential 50/50 sharing of revenues. Under these terms would get 50 percent of 4.5 billion dollars or 2.3 billion each year. The Taiwan oil would have to be transported via the ExxonMobil pipeline out of Chad.
The current Exxon Mobil-led consortium had made over 7 billion dollar on Chad oil between 2003-2005, paying the central government only 207 million dollar. The Taiwan deal potential will set a new international standard profit sharing paying Chad 50 percent or 3.5 billion using the Exxon Mobil deal. This new 50/50 sharing would potential destroy the Chinese’s, ExxonMobil and World Bank existing models in Africa.
This is the same model that the leadership of South Sudan is trying to create for all new oil deals in southern Sudan. China and other Asian oil companies are pushing Sudanese oil production to 500,000 but are only paying a royalty of 5 percent on each barrel exported.
The US State Department made public this week that there is a possibility the ExxonMobil oil pipeline will be extended into Darfur. This expansion will open the door to the Taiwan deal. The US government is trying to position itself as an “honest broker”. According to the International Herald Tribune, “western diplomats fear that if Deby’s government fall, chaos will ensue. They also worry that a new government, if aided by Sudan in ousting Deby, would be much more sympathetic to Khartoum”. “ China, via Sudan would then control the two most import oil pipeline in Chad and Sudan. China control of both oil pipe lines would kill the Taiwan deal.
If Deby wins the May election, China next move would be military partition of eastern Chad.
Deby is an obstacle for the country.” said To Erdimi, a nephew who broke with Deby last year and now organizes a rebel movement against him from the United States.
The Deby government and French military say the political situation has returned too normal in Chad. No one is officially admitting to exactly where the remains of the rebel’s are- not even the French military, which has six Mirage jets flying surveillance missions over the arid, land eastern Bad Lands of Chad. Many diplomats think the insurgents are probably refueling.
The Christian Science Monitor report –“ We have the calm before the (next) storm.
The president of Chad Mr. Deby said the intelligence from France was crucial in helping the government troop repulse the rebel’s attacks on the capital April 13. Many in the international surveillance how a force of 700 troops could move undetected over 600 miles across a desert all the way to N’Djamema without French and US military collaboration.
The US military and oil companies maintain very powerful satellite surveillance platforms like the Ground Moving Target Indicator (GMTI). This military platform allows the US tracking device, based in space, which could pinpoint and follow the smallest of targets on earth. A force of 700 troopers moving across a desert would be very easy to track by US Space Command. Anywhere alone the trip, Chadian troops could have informed and destroyed the strike force. The Sudanese military is track daily by US Space Command.
The political question is why the White House did not inform President Deby of his unwanted visitors.
The U.N. diplomats said Tuesday that Security Council ambassadors were told at a briefing that 125 new vehicles transported well-armed rebel fighter in new uniforms 620 miles from the Sudan-Chad border to the capital of Chad, N’Djamena for the raid.
According to the Commander of French forces in Chad, Col. Vincent Dollard, while he admits he had no visual information of his own, he maintains there is nothing of any significance is happening in eastern Chad. The French reinforcements sent to Chad last week have been redeployed to their permanent bases in Gabon.
According to the BBC, the Janjaweed, a militia shock force of the Sudanese military in collaboration with Chadian insurgents are in the process of opening up a military corridor between Darfur Sudan and the oil rich eastern region of southern Chad. This operation appears to design to draw the Chadian arms forces out into the open for a military conformation before the rainy season.
In the face of this Chinese backed Sudanese military offensive the weaker Chadian army has elected to withdraw to defensive positions in key towns praying for the rainy season to start. Hundred of thousands of Chadian and Sudan refugees are being forced by the Janjaweed from their homes and herded into squatter concentration camps like Gouroukoun, near the Chad-Sudan border.
This military Mexican stand off has creation a security vacuum that allows the rebels to move their bases forward inside Chad. This vacuum is also setting the political pre-condition for the illegal formation of a national provincial government to oppose the elected central government in N’ Djamena. Sultan Saeed Brahim Moustapha is quoted say “The Chadian government has a duty, a national duty, to protect its border and its people.” A Chad major Chad military offensive against the Sudanese military would strain the logistical infrastructure of Chadian army and bring the French forces into direct contact with Sudanese and Chinese military forces.
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