New Home for Naw Khan cartel?

New homeland for Naw Kham cartel?

Evidence suggest the MH370 Hijackers networks are in communication with Beijing

There is secondary evidence the MH370 hijackers network are in communication with Beijing and working out terms of a deal to take control the over land corridor Kachin in northern Myanmar. The majority of ATS are sourced from Myanmar’s eastern Shan State via Laiza, Kachin to Bangladesh and India key, see green lines. Beijing declares unofficial ceasefire created in place in response to MH370 attack, Burmese army troops in Kachin are restricted from attacking insurgent forces that are consolidating the drug trade. China is brokering the ceasefire and is a real threat to Burmese forces.

 The preponderance of emerging evidence support the conclusion the attack on flight was the work of a cartel with special skill sets. By design, the hijacking and destruction of the plane reveals to the world the logistical limits of the Chinese military to find hunt down and kill drug insurgents. The attack also, signals the reemergence of the myth of Naw Khan Cartel and its expansion into the South China Sea. A new arrangement appears to be working out between Beijing and the mythical Naw Kham cartel for no more attacks in exchange for the strategic Lajayang region of Burma. The Lajayang region centered on Laiza is the gatway to the emerging rich Indian ATC market, control of the over land corridor is critical.

Writer note to reader: African Americans should watch the film the American Gangster and fast forward to the section on drugs in Thailand, it’s a good virtual reality background of the region.

Laiza center of the current standoff point between China and Myanamar drug lords gatway to emerging Indian drug market. This corridor via Cambodia to avoid Thailand’s strict border controls. Pro Chinese local Shan armies are consolidating their positions in order to project force into the Laiza region to create a de facto autonomous pro Chinese Kachin state controlling northern drug trade and economic development.

While African drug cartels are happily diversifying from cocaine and heroin to feed Southeast Asia’s growing appetite for methamphetamines, the region has long been supplying itself. Thailand and the Philippines are well-known suppliers, but the vast majority of ATS are sourced from Myanmar’s eastern Shan State, where local cartels funnel goods through (Chinese drone protected) Laos. India is the new growth market.

Drug smuggling and gun-running from Myanmar is a major problem for India. Myanmar’s deputy director of the control committee for drug abuse, Zaw Lin Tun, conceded to officials that there were poppy fields in Myanmar, of which some are owned and run by Indian insurgents.

Last year, Myint is said to have told A.K. Mangotra, secretary (border management) in the home ministry, that help from India could be crucial in maintaining peace in Kachin state and thereby in Sagaing where the Naga rebels are most active.

India must calibrated a Chinese response
Nubian Observer analysis suggest in the case of Kachin emerging drug traffic corridor, diluting the integrity of the northern Kachin borders and sovereignty to enable the capture of a few shipments ATD must be calibrated against a Chinese response with would include arming the Kachin with advanced modern weapons and short range strike drones. Without a sustain military campaign, the political costs would out weight the gains in drug seized. The Indian military must calibrate whether it really want to engage in a brief anti insurgency intervention to save the Burmese from a tactical defeat.

There is evidence of reduce levels of Chinese aggression since the MH370 hijacking.

Villagers flee fighting in northern Shan State, in Kachin villagers are being toll to return home.

May 2, 2014 Local aid workers say fighting has continued between Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and Burmese army troops at Upper Kawng Kha since Wednesday morning at around 8 am. Kawng Kha is located near Nam Tau village in Pangsai Township in northern Shan State.

Local residents who were frightened by ongoing violence have been seen fleeing in all directions, said a local aid worker. He said, “We do not yet have detailed information about villagers, we are concerned about the villagers’ security and safety, and following the situation closely with KBC, Metta, WPN and UNHCR.”

Aid workers say additional displaced persons will further deteriorate the conditions, already worsened by poor living conditions and Burmese army troops threatening villagers to move out of temporary camps and go back to their own villages where frequent skirmishes have been going on for weeks. Safe  zones were provide in China for Burmese people.

Beijing declared unofficial ceasefire, remains firm

Beijing declares unofficial ceasefire created in place in response to the MH370 hijackers demands, Burmese army troops have broken ceasefire but it remains firm

According to DVB, The NCCT and government negotiators reached a preliminary draft for a nationwide ceasefire in March after the MH370 hijacking, which is currently holding and back by Chinese threats. The two sides have stated the ambition to approve a final peace pact by August 2014, though many ethnic leaders have voiced concern that the recent conflict could undo much of their progress to date.

Following the MH 370 hijacking, the National Ceasefire Coordination Team, government negotiators and Chinese backed UWSA and KNU made public a new ceasefire agreement. Two posting of Naw Kham appeared on DVB website and remain today. Both the UWSA and the KNU pro Chinese armies are currently in Union-level discussions with the government, as both have secured regional peace pacts, but remain united in their condemnation of the government’s actions towards the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Shan State Army-North (SSA-N), all of which are affected by the recent fighting. Despite the conflict, the SSA-N is currently under ceasefire with the central government, while the KIA and the TNLA both maintain combatant status and have yet to enter state-level negotiations. KIA Deputy Commander-in Chief Maj-Gen Gun Maw on Tuesday extended an invitation to the central government to resume state-level peace talks in Kachin State capital Myitkyina in early May, so as to precede Union-level talks scheduled later in the month.

U.S. to play a role in peace

According to Associated Press April 22, 2014  A leader of ethnic Kachin rebels battling government forces in Myanmar has urged the U.S. to play a role in peace talks to quell decades of conflict in the country's lawless border regions. Clashes in northern Myanmar intensified this month despite efforts to forge a nationwide cease-fire agreement between the government and all armed ethnic groups. Rebel Gen. Sumlut Gun Maw said Monday that the spike in violence is an effort by Myanmar's army to militarily weaken the Kachin forces before any cease-fire is signed.

According to DVA, DAVID STOUT,30 April 2013

 “Hypothetically speaking, if in a year’s time the Tatmadaw were to launch an offensive against the Wa, it would be a very significant war. The scale of fighting against the KIA last December and January would look like a schoolyard brawl by comparison with a full-scale conflict between the Tatmadaw and the UWSA,” said Davis.“[The UWSA] has much greater numbers, much better trained troops and, as we’re seeing, significant hardware.”Formed from the remains of the CPB that fractured along ethnic lines after the group imploded in the late 1980s, the Chinese have maintained strong ties with the Wa and have only further consolidated relations since officials in Naypyidaw have begun courting Western nations during the country’s nascent reform period. “At the end of the day, if the Tatmadaw intend to go for this target, they’ll go for it,” said Davis. “And that is clearly what the Chinese have every interest in preempting and preventing.”

-Additional reporting provided by Ko Htwe

Beijing declares unofficial ceasefire created in place in response to the MH370 hijackers demands, Burmese air force under the Chinese enforced ceasefire no longer are allowed to bomb Kachin resistance fighters

Kachin IDPs  are strongly urged by insurgents to return home despite ongoing Myanmar military violence, under the protection of Chinese.

The Kachin resistance fighters, Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) have been forced in the mountain strong holds awaiting final liquidation by Myanmar’s army assault troops. Over a hundred protestors marched through the streets of Rangoon on Jan. 1 to call for an end to the bloody conflict, which has displaced over 75,000 people since fighting was renewed in June 2011 after a 17-year truce. Free Burma Rangers reports last year accused Burmese soldiers of rapes and other atrocities in Kachin villages. The Burmese military on Jan. 2 claimed responsibility for several air-strikes against Kachin rebel positions in the country's north—less than a day after the government denied that the strikes had taken place. The military statement said that "an assault mission, utilizing air-strikes, was carried out" in the strategic Lajayang region, less than 13 kilometers from the rebels' headquarters in Laiza. After the Maylasian flight 370 hijacking, the Chinese made the bombing stop. Chinese drones allow easily enforce of the unofficial ceasefire by flying over Burmese military mountain strong holds that cannot be effectively protected by jet or missile cover.

United States and India appears to be between rock and hard place in term of Kachin political dismemberment from the bloody Myanmar government

According to Myanmar Express- Latest Myanmar Military seizure of heroin production under Kachin Terrorist KIA/ KIO and its opium cultivations, production and illegal distribution worldwide under KIA/ KIO control area was a very serious concern, says US DEA official.

Myanmar Government Military re-occupied Kachin Terrorist Kia/ KIO camps on last 1 Jan 2013, Tuesdays after heavy attacks at LAGyanYan Mountains where Terrorists Weapons and high quality heroin were seized in custody.
Latest Myanmar Military seizure of heroin production under Kachin Terrorist KIA/ KIO and its opium cultivations, production and illegal distribution worldwide under KIA/ KIO control area was a very serious concern, says US DEA official.

The Drug Enforcement Administration DEA official, a federal law enforcement agency under the United States Department of Justice, warned actions to be taken and serious consequences expected in combating drug smuggling and importing KIA/ KIO heroin to the United States from KIA/KIO controlled remote areas where highly purified heroin was produced by Kachin Terrorist KIA/ KIO.

Recent Myanmar Army seizure of Kachin Terrorist Camps where KIA/ KIO’s purified heroin alerted Central Intelligent Agency (CIA), Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA),  Federal Bureau of Investigation(FBI) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Meantime, illegal heroin possession cases in United States mostly linked to Kachin and Chin Refugees who seeked political asylum in United States.

One US-CN official said that Kachin KIA/ KIO heroin would replace Afghanistan heroin on streets of United States if necessary measures aren’t taken in the long run.

Myanmar Government Military re-captured Kachin Terrorist KIA/ KIO outposts where high quality heroin was found and worldwide distribution track records are uncovered.  

In a blog posting Saturday about those meetings, Assistant Secretary of State for Human Rights Tom Malinowski did not directly address the possibility of U.S. involvement in the cease-fire negotiations. But he wrote that the U.S. expressed firm support for the need for the post-cease-fire peace process to tackle political grievances.

2 May 2014, the KIO sent a letter to the UPWC requesting that the two sides meet on 10 May in the Kachin State capital Myitkyina. The KIO’s vice-chief of staff, Maj-Gen Gun Maw, has warned that the conflict could “create more tensions in the nationwide ceasefire talks”.

The letter also requested the presence of several third-party observers including the UN Special Advisor Vijay Nambiar, Chinese envoy Wan Yingfan, and representatives of other ethnic armed groups. The United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the Karen National Union (KNU) released a joint-statement on Tuesday chastising the use of military force by Burmese government troops and several ethnic armed groups in Kachin and Shan states during an ongoing offensive that has displaced thousands of ethnic civilians in recent weeks.

The UWSA and KNU leaders also agreed to propose amendments to the 2008 Constitution when the peace process reaches the stage of political dialogue. The UWSA also expressed its intention to demand a fully autonomous Wa State at the appropriate stage of negotiation. Will Kachin be the next fully autonomous state?

The statement, issued shortly after a meeting between the groups’ leaders in Panghsang, capital of the Wa Self-Administered Division in eastern Burma, demanded that all parties do more to find a political solution to the conflict as the current exchanges risk damaging nationwide reconciliation efforts. Both parties reiterated that ethnic discrimination and political inequality are core contributors to Burma’s decades of civil war and unrest.

India has embarked on a renewed engagement with Myanmar

Drug smuggling and gun-running from Myanmar is a major problem for India. Myanmar’s deputy director of the control committee for drug abuse, Zaw Lin Tun, conceded to officials that there were poppy fields in Myanmar, of which some are owned and run by Indian insurgents.

Last year, Myint is said to have told A.K. Mangotra, secretary (border management) in the home ministry, that help from India could be crucial in maintaining peace in Kachin state and thereby in Sagaing where the Naga rebels are most active. Since the NSCN (K) has also sheltered outfits from Manipur and Assam, prominently leaders like I.K. Songbijit of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland and Paresh Barua of Ulfa, the situation poses a challenge for India. Indian officials said there is a marked difference in the way Myanmar has begun to look at the problem of insurgency. “There is no denial anymore about the presence of Indian insurgents in Myanmar,” a home ministry source said. With the set of reforms carried out by President Thein Sein and re-emergence of Aung San Suu Kyi, India has embarked on a renewed engagement with Myanmar. The delegates also discussed arms smuggling, border management, narcotics, Indian prisoners in Myanmar and Myanmarese prisoners in India last week. After the MH370 hijacking India has made no public statements about diluting the integrity of borders and sovereignty of neighboring countries, which enabled the capture of drug terrists or counterinsurgency operations outside India.

“China at your doorstep: Looking east from India’s northeast” India’s Calibration the Indian border analysis suggest:

In Myanmar, the post reform setup include President Thein Sein’s civilian government; the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) led by parliamentary head Shwe Mann; the Myanmar military under senior general Min Aung Hlaing, and the democratic opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her party. China is dealing with these groups in isolation, which might give pointers to its overall Myanmar strategy. Chinese interests in Myanmar not only include some of the most abundant oil and gas fields in Asia, but also strategically China’s so called ‘second coast’ by some Chinese diplomats.

In the eastern tip of Arunachal Pradesh live a small ethnic group called the Singpho who are related to the Kachin living in Myanmar’s Kachin state and Yunnan province of China. The Kachin take pride in their history of action as Kachin rangers during World War II on the side of Allied Powers especially the US military operating out of Assam, a fact which later lent them Washington’s ear for assistance.13 The Chinese, however, have not taken this relationship very well. What might be a troubling scenario for Beijing are these ear whispers materializing into an actual US presence once more in Kachin state, smack along China’s border.

Of more pressing concern to China are the Kachin armed groups such as the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), due to their proximity to the Chinese border and recent investments in Myanmar. The Kachin state possesses major infrastructure projects such as the now suspended Myitsone dam. The KIA has also seized control of the large areas designated for the Sino-Myanmar pipeline project in the adjacent Shan state where there are big Kachin populations.

The KIA is demanding autonomy for Kachin state within a federal Myanmar and there has been a ceasefire for 17 years with Nay Pyi Taw, which was, however, shattered in June 2011.14 In 2013 in an unprecedented departure from a policy of “non-interference in internal affairs,” or the ‘Beijing doctrine’ in popular parlance, China intervened as third party by bringing the two sides (Myanmar government and the KIA) for talks during two successive rounds of negotiations in the Chinese town of Ruili in Yunnan province. The next round of peace talks between the KIA and Thein Sein was moved to Myitkyina, the capital city of Kachin State inside Myanmar. China refused to join further peace talks with the US and other international entities as observers and would not recognize the event if it were held without a Chinese presence.

Strategic border interests

India needs to cooperate with Myanmar to ensure the security of the Bay of Bengal. India can work with Myanmar to develop more mature plans of development especially in stalled projects of developing natural resources benefitting the Kachin and other ethnic groups in Myanmar. There are concerns of arms and drugs trafficking from Myanmar to Northeast India. There is potential for strategic military cooperation, which enables Myanmar government to provide stability in its ethnic group regions like Shan state which in turn secures India’s own northeastern region.

The analysis suggested:

Calibration of China in Kachin Trans borders

China’s rapid path to prosperity have seen expansion of economic ties between the locals in Yunnan and their ethnic counterparts i.e. the Dai of Yunnan are closely related to the Thai, the Lao and the Shan of Myanmar on the either sides of the Mekong river. What is interesting is the case of China’s actions diluting the integrity of borders and sovereignty of neighboring countries, which enabled the capture and sentencing in China of the notorious Shan warlord, Nor Kham.

The Mekong River, known as the Lancang in China is vital to people in Myanmar and South East Asia. There have been serious concerns amongst the stakeholders of the lack of scientific collaboration and cooperative management of the Lancang-Mekong river system.

In the case of Kachin emerging drug traffic corridor, diluting the integrity of the northern Kachin borders and sovereignty to enable the capture of a few shipments ATD must be calibrated against a Chinese response with would include arming the Kachin with advanced modern weapons and strike drones. Without a sustain military campaign, the political costs would out weight the gains in drug seized. The Indian military must calibrate whether it really want to engage in a brief anti insurgency intervention to save the Burmese from a tactical defeat.

We shall see, as Malcolm X said “chickens come home to roost”