The new Chinese ICBM Threat
by Isiah R. Scott, Jr
Afrocentric view
The Peoples Republic of China (China) and the United States (U.S.) are in a arm race that threaten to lead to a nuclear confrontation and if not stopped, has the potential to lead both economies into depression. The central issue of the arms race is the fact that the U.S. does not respect the Chinese right to a nuclear counter potential and refuses to include China in its new nuclear arguments with Russia. This refusal of the U.S leaves China at risk of a first strike by either Russia and/or the U.S. China for different historical reason, is much like Germany was after World War I. China is aggressively expanding its supply of land, sea and air ICBMs and other nuclear missiles. Reportedly Chinese Navy is on a war footing, with a number of ships being imported, refitted and built.
As an American living at nuclear ground zero between New York City and Philadelphia, I pray the open source intelligence on this crisis is a CIA misinformation ruse.
There is a major U.S. intelligence breakdown on the numbers and rate of production of new Chinese ICBMs on the scale the 9/11 report to Congress. (see below Paradgrim shift and fear). If the pubic information about the Chinese arms race reflects any degree of reality, we are interring a Cuban missile crisis endgame, which was also a ICBM issue.
According to Major General John Holly March , 2005, who heads the powerful ground based midcourse defense program for the Missile Defense Agency, the 10 anti- missiles based in Alaska and California could provide a “limited defense against an attack out of Northeast Asia” The U.S. has based its public nuclear policy on the ability to intercept any missile attack, short of a massive Russian attack of thousands of warheads.
The core of this misplace hubris, was the notion that the new Northrop Grumman and Raytheon SM-3 missile, integrated with space-based lasers interceptors would be able to shield the American homeland from a Chinese nuclear attack of less than 30 ICBMs or 100 nuclear warheads.
The Clinton administration north American land-based anti-missile plan called for 250 land-based anti- missile by 2010. Combined with the U.S. navy’s plan 1000 SM-3 and space-based lasers, the immediate threat would have been met. The situation has dramatically changed for the worse since 9/11. The Chinese have rapidly increased the numbers of their ICBMs and launch platforms fueled by 200 billion trade surplus with the U.S. Under the pressure a 600 billion deficit and the Iraqi war, the Bush administration has deployed less than 20 per cent of the Clinton proposed shield. Congressional public reports, open intelligence and leading newspapers suggest that General Holly statement is not the factual case and appears to be very misleading at best.
The National anti-missile system cannot today shield America from either a Chinese first strike or counter strike. Its unclear if the existing shield would even not stop a multi missile ICBM attack from North Korea from reaching Japan or the U.S. main land The missile/anti-missile ratio gap with China may in fact be increasing. The Chinese understand that on a psychological level, particularly following 9/11, the anti-missile, missile shield has become American’s Great Wall of protection. Americans are growing concern about Bush’s failure to build the shield.
Four different U.S. presidents have sole Americans on the need and reason for the shield. The Chinese military planners see this as a weakness and are exploiting Americans new fears via Internet psychological warfare using the Washington-based Chinese lobby, CIA manufactured misinformation and American think tanks.
The Biggest Enemy is Us
The speed of the Chinese nuclear missile boat 094 deployment (reportedly a year ahead of seclude) is throwing the construction of the multi billion U.S.-Japan sea-based ABM shield off balance. Also, the fear of a second ICBM submarine launch this year is creating further construction problems.
Talking about the anti-missile failures, President Bush described the system as “modest” saying it’s a starting point… for “expanded capabilities later” The Congressional termination of the Space-based Laser development is a major set back to increasing the interception of Chinese ICBM’s and warheads in the second stage and layer of the ABM shield.
Its criminally insane to reduce the procurement of SM-3 anti-missile to just 30 missile deployed by 2007, particularly when the U.S. is working with Japan to Integrate SM-3 and Patriot into a advanced ABM system. Decommission of five Aegis halfway through their planned service life, as China is increasing it land-based ICBMs is just Treason. The most frighten aspect of the ABM construction is the continued in fighting within Pentagon missile defense bureaucracy.
Paradgrim shift and fear
Congressional testimony was taken on the 094 missile boat and Julang II in the early 1990s. But no one in the Washington imagined that the Chinese missile submariners would be deployed years before the first phases of the shield. Few people in Washington know how many ICBMs China now has and most numbers in Washington are tainted.
There was a major active intelligence and misinformation break down surrounding the 094 boat launch and status of ICBM missile readiness of the Julang II. Even knowing that testing and production of the Julang II missile were under way, critical intelligence reports like the 2003 SIPI project on Nuclear Technology Control –“Chinese nuclear forces” by Hans M. Kristensen did not list the immediate potential of Julang II The initial stages of the ABM shield were constructed based on these incorrect CIA manufactured numbers on Chinese ICBMs.
Multi station Chinese ICBM nuclear umbrella
This new missile submarine has major consequences for the national security of the U.S. homeland and third world policies. Six additional Chinese nuclear missile submariners would allow a saturation attack of almost 500 modern warheads on American and European cities. As important as the increased saturation threshold, is the creation of the second and third Chinese ICBM sea-base operational stations. The second and third Chinese ICBM platform stations would allow rogue states like Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, Cuba, Sudan and Venezuela to come under a new comprehensive multi station Chinese ICBM nuclear umbrella. Local and region pro-American powers will require micro-ABM shields.
Israel is exporting a micro ABM shield to India right now.
Middle Eastern countries are pressuring both the U.S. and Europe for shields for protect from Iran and soon the Sudan.
The threat matrix of foreign multinationals in China
The threat matrix of the Europe arms embargo is also real. There is a growing Europe based China lobby that operates just like Wal-Mart. But, like most misinformation, they are only parts of the real China story. The other part of the story is the leakage from multinationals operating in China that is making a major contribution to the Chinese nuclear ICBM program. According to the CIA and others, while Russia is the primary supplier, but there appear to be a lot of U.S. technological transfers both in the new missile boat and its new sea-based ICBM missile.
The German company MTU Friedrichshafen, 90 per cent owned by DaimlerChrysler, according to a U.S. Defense Department reports to Congress, indicates that MTU engines have gone into a new class of Chinese submarine that is also fitted with French-designed sonar. As important as the advanced submarine design was, the fusion- integration of German design on the engineering level with Chinese reconfiguration manufacturing and final assemble is far more important. Germany is a major partner with France and the U.S. in development of the next generation NATO electric boats and a world leader in fuel cell-based submariners.
Projects like above, has helped China and foreign multinationals create the core final assemble infrastructure in China, necessary to reconfigure a full range of weapon systems. China is trying to use the IBM ThinkPad modular method to built submariners. In the case of Song class 8-12 German assisted nuclear-armed boats are being built and fitted with state of the art electronics over the next few years, all running quieter than a LA class U.S. submariner?
The cost of the ABM system
At over 170 billion, the official cost of the ABM and other necessary counter-measures to meet the expanding China nuclear challenge. This is already cannibalizing the military budget. A space-based arms race will be beyond the budgetary constrains of the U.S. federal government and navy. The U.S. 6th, 7th and Atlantic fleets will have to be reconfriuge to support expanding sea-based ABM system with over 100 special constructed and equipped multi missile launch ships and submarines. States like New York and New Jersey will be asked to take more federal cuts in order to fund the new China arms race. Urban programs, particularly education and health will be the first victims.
At the end of the day the U.S. government is going to have to create and operate the same type of political communication network with China, as they did the Soviet Union. This process will have to be based on mutual respect and openness.
The deployment of the 094 program is forcing that reality.
There is still a degree of pathological denial about the changed China situation. There was a major active intelligence and misinformation break down surrounding the 094 boat launch and status of Chinese ICBM missile readiness that needs to be fixed. The most critical-missing element to this nuclear crisis is that more Americans need to join the national debates, as was the case in the cold war ICBM. An informed U.S. population remains our defense.
There is a large pool of African Americans who are working hard on various aspects of the China threat in the military, government and the private sectors, but there is no public forum in which their ideas are being exchanged as African Americans. As such, there is no public Afrocentric debate on the China threat. It continues to be our collective lost that this remains the case.
I hope I have made the naval dynamics clear for you. A Chinese Naval Executive Summary is enclosed. Please feel free to comment or ask addition questions, use my email or voice mail. It is my sincere hope that this brief adds to your understanding of China.
The hard facts
What is known today, is that one 094 submarine is in the water and two more are almost ready to be pushed in the water. And three to six more are in the pipeline before 2010. On October 13, 2004, a refitted Han class Chinese nuclear submarine, armed possibly with nuclear head cruise missiles, sailed at times undetected well westward of the forward U.S. military fortress on the island of Guam. The Han mission followed the July 2004 launch of the first of an unknown number of Chinese 094 nuclear ICBM submariners able to reach every city in North America and Western Europe. The Han’s mission established a new beyond Pearl Harbor forward operational range for Chinese attack submarine operations. The new multi billion ABM system appears to have failed to keep a lock on the Han submarine. Also, the mission appears to mark a new aggressive change in China strategic use of nuclear-armed attack submarines against land-based ABM infrastructure.
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