Voodoo Economics and the deindustrialization of New Orleans
By Isiah Scott
The post-Katrina Vision 2020 plan for the New Orleans fails to address any of the real basic economic dynamics of world trade and the rise of Asia manufacturing power. Also, the plan underestimates the value of good living conditions of a skill work force in the New Orleans region.
The flooding of New Orleans would at first view appears to have aided the critical path of economic transition away from New Orleans industrial base. Most of the region poor and unskilled labors have been displaced from New Orleans industrial region.
The flooding of New Orleans has both changes and shortens the whole matrix of economic trajectory and paths to a regional knowledge-based economy.
The central problem of New Orleans is Asia value added imports have added seroius new pressure to the New Orleans economy and raised the educational and skill level of the local work force.
Using MIT economist Lester Thurow post-industrial development model, the pre-Katrina Vision 2020 identifies and describes six sets of technologies as “not just creating (the next) big industries: they are going to change how we do everything”(“Brainpower and the Future of Capitalism). These six sets of technologies are medical/biomedical; micro manufacturing; software, Internet, and telecommunication; environment technologies; food technologies; and advanced materials.
According to the pre-Katrina Vision 2020: Skilled workers are the most import location factors…states must focus attention on ensuring that are attractive to these skilled workers. The Vision 2020 list as the greatest weaknesses …a high poverty rate, large numbers of citizens who are not benefiting sufficiently from or contributing sufficiently to Louisiana’s economy. The Vision 2020 report listed poverty at officially 16 percent. By Northern standards, poverty and structurally unemployables in over 30 percent. In cities like New Orleans, poverty is above 40 percent.
Cluster-based economic development is the reports economic development strategy, with emphasis on higher educated service employment. Before Katrina and the flooding of the city of New Orleans it was very unclear how the transition was going to be made without massive federal and private investments in the region particularly public school CIM-based education and CIM job training.
Few urban planners around the world gave New Orleans Master Plan for Economic Development much chance because of the chronic poverty, structurally unemployment and poor public schools before Katrina. New Orleans best-case path for development is based on local IT firms leading the creation a region CIM culture and manufacturing based.
The physical flooding of New Orleans has reduced the number of digital-based manufacturing platforms and skill workers to operate them.
The oil and chemical industries are already all most back to pre-Katrina production levels. While pre-Katrina regional manufacturing employed more people than the oil/chemical industry, its infrastructure is now flooded out and contributes far less to the southern Louisiana GDP. Non-oil related manufacturing is in a state of near total collsaped.
Asia is becoming the center of new oil refinery construction and chemical production. Most of the Asian local Gulf oil production is concentrating in deep-sea operations. Light West African crude is replacing heavy crude from South America as the main feed stock. The remaining Gulf oil refineries are downsizing and modernizing, reducing the need for labor intensity operations. The chemical industrial is being forced by the emergence of Chinese basic chemical industries to move up the production chain.
The New Orleans regional economy is driven by the immedicated political and economic needs (i.e. political economy) of the so-called “American Ruhr”. That is, the political economy of Southern Louisiana is B.F Goodrich, E.I. du Pont, Union Carbide, Reynolds Meals, Shell, Mobil, Texaco, Exxon, Mosanto, Uniroyal, Georgia-Pacific, Hydrocarbon Industries, Vulcan Materials, Nalco Chemicals, Dow Chemical, Allied Chemical, Stauffer Chemical, Hooker Chemicals, Freeport Chemicals, American Petrofina, and Total SA.
The post-Katrina economy, the American Ruhr control is even greater.
The market capitalization of just ExxonMobil, BP, Chevron and ConocoPhillips is over 850 billion dollars. There is no group of manufactures to counter the oil lobby in Louisiana. New Orleans needs to balance its economy mixture with a major CIM element. This capitalization is ten times the pre-Katrina New Orleans Gross Domestic Product.
The regional infrastructure is defined by the production needs of the American Ruhr.
The oil companies have been slowly downsizing and consolidating their massive oil and chemical infrastructure the past 20 years. The refusal of the oil and chemical companies to pay any major part of the trillion dollars of damages to the New Orleans industrial base and work force from the massive oil and chemical spills, ensure that the non-oil centric manufacturing sector will be very recovering.
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